.La Nina & Irena.
.I said I wasn't going to get into this, but I couldn't help myself. So here's the deal with wind shear - at least what I know about it. You have two phenomenons:
.La Nina = colder than normal water temperatures in the Pacific, resulting in less wind shear in the upper atmosphere.
.El Nino = warmer than normal water temperatures in the Pacific, resulting in more wind shear in the upper atmosphere.
.El Nino is sometimes referred to as the "hurricane killer" because the higher than normal wind shears in the upper atmosphere prevent hurricanes from forming. La Nina is characterized by lower than normal wind shear thus it is less of a deterrent to hurricanes.
.Currently, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is at ESNO-neutral, BUT with atmospheric patterns continuing to reflect La Nina-like conditions. The picture above shows that temperatures in the east-central Pacific are starting to move more negative over the past 30 days, which is consistent with La Nina.
.So maybe we only have the Labrador Currents to save us since we have La Nina-like conditions in the upper atmosphere??? Who knows!?